1 min read
The Psychology of near miss

The psychology of near miss occurs when individuals overestimate their likelihood of winning a game of chance because they barely missed winning in their previous attempt. For instance, in a slot machine, you might overestimate your odds of winning right after only missing one tile to hit the jackpot. Even Advertisements showcase this psychology, when they get only one wrong in the sequence. Generally after seeing this, you would think, “I can do better,” when in reality, there’s the same chance to get a jackpot even after hitting none of the same tiles.
 In mathematics, this is referred to as independent chance. In other words, any one roll is not connected to the next or the one before in any way. 
One Hallmark of gambling is its uncertainty. Theconversation.com conducted an experiment and concluded that in gambling, uncertainty itself is a reward in the brain. This is why even when gambling ceases to be fun, players will continue to play into compulsiveness. 
Arcades play on the near miss effect, especially targeted towards children. Consequently, the Wheel of Fortune arcade game, where the object is to stop the bulb exactly on a bonus light, it a scam. This is because in the manual for the game, it says, “Owner can specify how often Jackpot is won.” When it presents itself as a winnable game, it's essentially just a dice roll heavily stacked against you. But you can get one light short and one light long. Mark Rober proved this. EEK!
No wonder they say, “You win some, you lose some!” I think it should be, “In gambling, you lose all and hate all.”
In short, the Near Miss effect tricks us into believing we're on the brink of victory, even when the odds are against us. Whether it's a harmless arcade game or a high-stakes slot machine, it often leads to the familiar phrase "I WAS SO CLOSE…let me try one more time!" Ultimately, it might be wiser to cash out rather than chase all those hundreds of near victories in hopes of striking even a singular jackpot. 
So remember, in the game of near misses, the real jackpot might just be learning when to walk away seconds before you're yelling, "I WAS SO CLOSE... let me try one more time!"

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